Rising carbon dioxide release offset 44 percent of recent gains in annual land carbon uptake, researchers reported in Nature Communications on September 2, 2026. Evaluating data from 1993 to 2022, the study found that while maximum carbon uptake grew across the globe, accelerating carbon emissions from ecosystems cut the net growth of the terrestrial carbon sink nearly in half.
The research team, led by Yu Bai, Zheng Fu, and Josep Peñuelas, examined global carbon cycles using atmospheric inversion estimates alongside 16 terrestrial biosphere models. Enhanced maximum uptake and an extended carbon uptake period raised annual net ecosystem productivity by 0.31 ± 0.09 grams of carbon per square meter per year. Rising maximum release simultaneously reduced that benefit by 44 ± 20 percent, leaving a net increase of 0.18 ± 0.06 grams of carbon per square meter per year.
Global rates of maximum carbon uptake outpaced release rates during the three-decade observation window. Maximum uptake rose globally at 0.18 ± 0.04 grams of carbon per square meter per year, while maximum release expanded by 0.07 ± 0.01 grams of carbon per square meter per year. Uptake increases occurred across widespread regions, whereas release increases concentrated most heavily at mid- to high latitudes.
Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide drove the long-term increases in both metrics, while climate variability created regional differences across land areas. The authors noted that future projections of land sink capacity must integrate carbon release rather than focusing primarily on absorption gains.
Scientists across institutions including the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the University of Exeter, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, and Cornell University supported the investigation. The analysis drew datasets from the Jena CarboScope atmospheric inversion project, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, eddy-covariance records from FLUXNET, and biosphere simulations from the TRENDY modeling community.
