Researchers at MIT published a study on September 8, 2026, forecasting that lower-income populations in some regions could spend about 50 percent of their income on food by 2050. Higher-income groups in the same areas might spend roughly 5 percent.
Jennifer Morris, a co-author and principal research scientist at MIT, stated that such high costs can destabilize an entire life by leaving few resources for basic necessities. The findings appeared in the journal Earth’s Future.
Global modeling scenarios
The study team used the Global Change Analysis Model version 7.1 to simulate 3,735 different scenarios involving 12 main variables. These variables included population, gross domestic product, income distribution, carbon intensity, land use, agricultural trade, energy consumption, and water-use projections.
Gi Joo Kim, a research scientist at Tulane University and co-author, noted that income matters, but regional conditions, land use, energy systems, water availability, and consumer behavior also shape risks. The authors divided the world into 32 regions, 235 water basins, and 384 land-use regions for the simulations.
Regional variations
Food security may become most acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa by 2050. Energy security could prove most acute for low-income residents in parts of Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.
In southern Africa, modeling suggests the poorest 10 percent of the population could spend 49.6 percent of income on food, compared to 5.5 percent for the wealthiest 10 percent. West and East Africa face projected food burdens of 48.4 percent and 42.5 percent for their bottom income brackets.
Energy burdens also show income divides. The Middle East residential energy burden is estimated at 18.9 percent for the lowest income bracket and 1.7 percent for the highest bracket in 2050. Eastern Europe reaches 11.3 percent for low-income residents and under 5 percent for high-income groups.
The U.S. Department of Energy, Stanford University, and the National Research Foundation of Korea provided partial support for the research.
