Middle Eastern oil producers can repurpose existing export terminals, tanker fleets, and sovereign investment funds to establish a global supply chain for sustainable aviation fuel, according to a report published in Nature.
Aviation accounts for more than 2% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, while sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) currently supplies less than 1% of global jet-fuel consumption. Electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft for long-haul routes remain years away, leaving alternative fuels produced from agricultural residues, waste oils, industrial gases, and wastewater sludge as the primary near-term pathway to cut flight emissions.
Tanker capacity and trade flows
Gulf Cooperation Council members—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—possess large maritime fleets that currently make unmonetized return journeys. Very large crude carriers transporting around two million barrels each move roughly 70% of Gulf oil exports to East and Southeast Asian markets, including China, India, Japan, and Singapore. Suezmax vessels carry around one million barrels to Mediterranean ports. Most of these vessels return to Gulf terminals carrying only water ballast for stabilization.
Major crude-importing partners in Asia and Europe generate substantial agricultural and forestry biomass. Gulf operators could use empty return tanker routes to transport bio-crude and feedstocks back to regional refineries. Gulf oil exports represent an estimated two billion barrels of annual backhaul capacity.
Refining European aviation fuel demand illustrates the logistical scale. Europe consumes roughly 400 million barrels of aviation fuel annually. Meeting the European Union's 6% blending mandate by 2030 will require 24 million barrels of SAF. Assuming a 50% volumetric refining yield, producing that volume requires 48 million barrels of bio-crude, which equates to 2.4% of the Gulf's annual backhaul tanker capacity. Meeting the EU's 20% mandate by 2035 would require approximately 160 million barrels of bio-crude, or roughly 8% of return capacity. If the entire global aviation sector—consuming 2.2 billion barrels annually—adopted matching 6% and 20% mandates, the bio-crude required would occupy 13% and 44% of Gulf backhaul capacity, respectively.
Infrastructure and certification
Major regional facilities can adapt existing storage and processing assets for alternative fuels. These sites include the Ruwais Industrial Complex and Port of Fujairah in the UAE, Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, and Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar. State-backed entities, such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority, maintain capital models capable of funding overseas biomass collection.
Regional carriers including Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Saudia, and Riyadh Air already face European compliance rules under the ReFuelEU aviation mandate, which requires rising proportions of alternative fuel blends. The report also proposed establishing a regional SAF clearing house across the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia to manage fuel testing, verification, and sustainability certification.
