Battery electric trucks could economically beat diesel models for 70% to 90% of heavy-duty road freight activity in Europe by 2030 under standard cost assumptions, according to a study published in Nature Communications.
Researchers analyzed microdata from over four million trucks across Europe to assess total cost of ownership and technical feasibility for battery electric trucks and hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks. Under standard cost and technical maturity projections, small-battery electric trucks achieve lower total cost of ownership than diesel for 91% of freight activity by 2030, while large-battery models reach 69%. Under optimistic assumptions, operational savings reach up to 0.50 euros per kilometer.
Infrastructure constraints alter near-term adoption limits. When factoring in public fast-charging availability along transport corridors, battery electric models can feasibly replace diesel trucks for 25% of driven kilometers in 2030. That share corresponds to 18% to 25% of operating trucks, exceeding the 5% to 9% fleet share expected under European Union emission targets for 2030.
Infrastructure and Efficiency
Fast-charging network rollouts along the Trans-European Transport Network significantly expand operational capacity over time. By 2035, the feasible share of road freight kilometers for battery electric trucks grows to between 63% and 77%, before reaching 77% to 90% by 2040. In 2025, battery electric models represented roughly 4% of new truck sales in the European Union, totaling more than 35,000 active vehicles.
Vehicle efficiency drives the lower operating costs of battery electric trucks. A large-battery tractor-trailer uses 110 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers in 2030, compared to 227 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers for a fuel cell tractor-trailer. Lower energy consumption gives electric trucks a sustained operating cost advantage over conventional internal combustion engines.
Hydrogen and Policy Impacts
Fuel cell electric trucks face a much narrower window for cost competitiveness. In 2030, hydrogen trucks yield lower total costs than diesel only under optimistic scenarios, generating less than half the savings of battery electric trucks. Fuel cell models reach 90% economic viability by 2040 in baseline scenarios—a decade later than small-battery electric trucks. Under pessimistic cost scenarios, hydrogen trucks never achieve cost parity with diesel. European operators ran only 335 hydrogen-fueled trucks in 2025.
Green hydrogen delivered end-use prices assumed in the study range from 6.8 to 9.1 euros per kilogram in 2030, falling to between 4 and 6.4 euros per kilogram by 2050. However, high distribution costs remain a primary barrier. A recent US study cited by the authors reported delivered hydrogen prices of $15.25 per kilogram due to expensive storage and refueling infrastructure.
European policy measures heavily influence adoption rates before 2030. Existing rules include 50% road toll reductions for zero-emission trucks in 2030, falling to 25% from 2040 onward, alongside carbon pricing under the second emissions trading system and fuel mandates. Without these policies, the economically viable share for large-battery electric trucks in 2030 drops below 10%. Heavy-duty vehicles accounted for roughly 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 2023, exceeding shipping and aviation combined.
